More Conservatives Mull ‘08 Bid, But May Lack That Wow Factor
March 30th, 2007
BY BRIAN MITCHELL
INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 12/21/2006
Former Virginia Gov. James Gilmore added his name to the list of GOP White House hopefuls this week, saying the field lacks a real conservative capable of winning.
Gilmore announced he was mulling a run in several interviews.
“There is no committed conservative in this race who can put together a national campaign. I can do that,” he told the Washington Post.
He brings to seven the number of Republicans who have said they will run or will consider running.
Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback announced earlier this month that he would explore running.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich also said recently he may run if the field does not produce a strong leader by Labor Day.
Moderate Response
Heretofore the field has been dominated by three moderates: Arizona Sen. John McCain, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and outgoing Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
McCain and Giuliani have topped most polls. Both bested all top Democrats in a recent Rasmussen poll.
Giuliani had the best favorability rating 71% vs. McCain’s 59%.
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama led Democrats in favorability with 52% vs. 50% for former Vice President Al Gore, 48% for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and 47% for former Sen. John Edwards.
Neither McCain nor Giuliani excites GOP conservatives, who also question Romney’s conversion on abortion and gay rights.
Hence the growing ranks of volunteer alternatives, each appealing to a different kind of conservative.
Gilmore touts himself as a tax-cutter. As governor, he opposed Internet taxation and pushed through a repeal of Virginia’s hated auto tax.
As head of the Republican National Committee in President Bush’s first year in office, he fell out with the White House over spending.
But he’s been out of the public eye for years, and his fame as governor has been eclipsed by that of his successor, Democrat Mark Warner.
“Probably 95%-plus of conservative decision makers, the key people in the Republican nominating process, don’t know Gilmore,” said Richard Viguerie, a veteran conservative activist and author of “Conservatives Betrayed.”
Brownback is counting on social conservatives. He won his seat in 1996 vowing to “reduce, reform and return” reduce the size of government, reform Congress and return to traditional values.
Limited-government conservatives say he hasn’t done much to reduce or reform.
“He’s a lot like Bush,” said GOP pollster Michael McKenna. “He sees a problem and his first inclination is to toss money at it.”
Calif. Rep. Duncan Hunter, who headed the House Armed Services Committee, is a defense hawk who has differed with Bush over trade and immigration.
Winning the White House from the House of Representatives is considered a political impossibility. Few congressmen can claim a base big enough to do it.
He’s No Reagan
And even Hunter doesn’t meet what Viguerie calls the Goldwater-Reagan test.
Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan seized the GOP’s conservative wing by speaking out against party leaders. Goldwater accused President Eisenhower of running a “dime-store New Deal.” Reagan took issue with President Ford’s Panama Canal giveaway.
“Where were these Republican candidates who want our support when we needed them to stand up and speak truth to power?” Viguerie asked. “I didn’t see them doing any of that.”
One Republican who could credibly cross the White House on its greatest weakness Iraq is Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel.
But Hagel hasn’t said he’ll run or done much to distinguish himself from the candidates. One leading influential activist described Hagel as “Bush without the war.”
The lack of a conservative champion ups the odds that Southern Republicans will go with the most conservative of the leading moderates.
“They like a conservative, but they don’t necessarily support the most conservative candidate,” said Hastings Wyman, editor of the Southern Political Report.
Pat Robertson and Pat Buchanan both lost in South Carolina, Wyman pointed out.
The GOP has several strong governors, but none has yet to offer himself. Two of the best possibilities suffer from guilt by association.
“If Jeb Bush’s name was Joe Smith and he was finishing his second successful term as governor of Florida, having reformed education and welfare and juvenile justice in the state, he would by the nominee by acclamation,” McKenna said.
Jeb Bush this week told Spanish-language reporters, “No tengo futuro (I have no future).”
The same goes for Texas Gov. Rick Perry. He wins higher marks from state conservatives than Bush did as governor, but being from Texas could be a liability in 2008.
That leaves the field open for a moderate maverick like McCain, who has the establishment support he lacked in 2000.
“If he comes into the South Carolina primary having done well in Iowa and New Hampshire, then I think he’ll be OK,” Wyman said. “He’s got some strong support there, but he also has a lot of people who don’t like him.”