Crude Oil Slides Below $90 A Barrel Ahead Of Next Week’s OPEC Meeting

November 30th, 2007
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U.S. crude oil futures ended lower for the fourth day in five on Friday, falling below $90 for the first time in five weeks as traders speculated that OPEC’s meeting next week would decide on an output increase.

Worries that the weakening U.S. economy would curb oil demand also fueled pre-weekend selling, analysts said.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude settled down $2.30, or 2.5%, at $88.71 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Oct. 24’s $87.10.

It traded from $88.52 to $91.52. The day’s low was the lowest since the $87.54 low on Oct. 25.

“Expectations of a production increase by OPEC at their meeting next week and technical selling helped drive the market below $90,” said Addison Armstrong, an analyst at TFS Energy in Stamford, Conn.

From the $99.11 high a week ago, prices at the day’s low had slumped $10.59, or 10.7%. Nymex crude hit an intraday record of $99.29 on Nov. 21.

“We’re in a downtrend because the market is very concerned about the economy and where it goes from here,” said Eric Wittenauer, an analyst at A.G. Edwards in St. Louis. “That obviously has implications for demand growth.”

In London, January Brent crude fell $1.96, or 2.2%, to $88.26 a barrel, trading from $87.55 to $90.78.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets on Dec. 5 in Abu Dhabi, where oil ministers will map production policy following a Nov. 1 boost of 500,000 barrels per day.

A Reuters poll of 24 banks, traders and consultants had 18 participants forecasting another output rise.

But Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said Friday that world oil markets are well supplied and that it “remains to be seen” whether OPEC will boost output.

Daily Report: EUR/USD to Retest Record High ahead of FOMC Minutes

November 30th, 2007
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Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 20 07 07:41 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report EUR/USD to Retest Record High ahead of FOMC Minutes

Dollar edges lower today as markets await Fed minutes and housing data from US. EUR/USD looks set to retest record high of 1.4751 after more than a week of consolidation. Some volatility is seen in the Japanese yen, following initial weakness in Asian stock markets and subsequent rebound. But after all, the yen is still bounded in familiar range against dollar and Euro.

The minutes of FOMC meeting on Oct, where Fed cut rates by 25bps, will be released together with the adjusted projections for growth, inflation and unemployment. Note that Bernanke has already mentioned that there are some changes in the upcoming Fed communications and will take effect starting today. The main points are that headline PCE deflator projections will be included together with core PCE deflator. Forecasts horizon will also be extended to three years. Markets are currently pricing in over 80% of chance that Fed will cut rates by 25bps on Dec 11. However, recent Fedspeak suggested that some members though the cumulative 75bps cut this year is already enough to keep the economy growing moderately while recent data suggests increased risk of re-emergence of inflation. Today’s projections will the most important piece of information to wrap up the expectation for rate cuts and could trigger much volatility in the markets.

Housing starts is expected to deteriorate further to a 14 year low of 1.17M annualized rate with building permits dropping to 1.21m in Oct. However, yesterday’s NAHB housing market sentiments remained steady at 19 in Nov, same as revised reading in Oct. Upside surprise in today’s housing data would provide some relieve that the downturn in housing markets is at least not accelerating. Though, it is still premature to assume that the housing market has bottomed even in such case.

Another piece of important economic data today is Canadian CPI. USD/CAD continues to press 55 day EMA after dovish comments from BoC Dodge as well as retreat in oil prices. Dodge said yesterday that an interest rate cut is possible before of “risks” to economic growth, which is dragged down by global economy and volatility in financial markets. Headline CPI is expected to accelerate from 2.5% yoy to 2.8% yoy in Oct while core CPI is expected to remain steady at 2.0% yoy. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4628; (P) 1.4657; (R1) 1.4693; «www.actionforex.com»

EUR/USD strengthens mildly into European session and at this point, intraday bias is mildly on the upside as long as 1.4632 minor support holds. Retest of 1.4751 high could be seen and decisive break will confirm that recent rally has resumed for next upside target of 1.5 psychological resistance. Below 1.4632 will suggest that EURUSD is still bounded in sideway consolidation and dip to 1.4519 could be seen. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.4441 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.4124 to 1.4751 at 1.4438) and bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, regardless of internal structure, medium term up trend from 1.1639 remains in force and is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high), with subsequent correction ended at 1.1639. Such rally is expected to extend further to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 which will overlap with 1.5 psychological resistance.

On the downside, firm break of 1.4438/41 cluster support will firstly indicate that rise from 1.4014 has completed Secondly, this will warn that whole rise from 1.3360 has also completed with a five wave rally to 1.4751, after meeting 100% projection of 1.3550 to 1.4281 from 1.4014 at 1.4745. In such case, a medium term top is likely in place. Lengthier consolidation could then be seen with a dip into 1.4014/4282 support zone before resuming the medium term up trend. But a break below 1.3851 is resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal that such rally has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bullish.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 2.0445; (P) 2.0505; (R1) 2.0559; «www.actionforex.com»

Cable’s rebound from 2.0353 extends further today. With 4 hours MACD recovered above signal line, a short term bottom could be in place. At this point, intraday bias is mildly on the upside as long as 2.0456 minor support holds. Break of 2.0621 resistance will confirm such case and bring strong rebound towards 2.0845 resistance. But still, fall from 2.1161 should still resume as long as this resistance remains intact. On the downside, below 2.0456 will turn intraday flip intraday bias back to the downside for 2.0353 low first and then 2.0243 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term rally from 1.7047, regardless of internal structure, is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (04 high) with subsequent correction ended at 1.7047. Break of 61.8% projection level at 2.0677 now encourages further medium term rally to next projection target of 100% projection 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.2921. On the downside, decisive break of the medium term rising channel (2.0014) is needed to signal that such medium term rally has made a top. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bullish.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1133; (P) 1.1167; (R1) 1.1184; «www.actionforex.com».

USD/CHF’s fall from 1.1891 extends further today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.1204 resistance holds and the current decline is expected extend further to next downside target of important medium term support at 1.1100 (95 low). On the upside, above 1.1204 will a short term bottom is possibly formed and bring recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.1259) and above. But upside should be limited below 1.1597 support turned resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 1.3283 (05 high) has now breached medium term support of 1.1288. The current preferred interpretation is that fall from 1.3282 was initially contained at 1.1919 and turned into sideway triangle consolidation that completed at 1.2467, where the medium term down trend resumed. With this interpretation, next downside target is 1.1100 clusters support (95 low and 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2467 at 1.1103). But downside could be supported there initially on oversold condition and bring rebound. On the upside, even though a stronger rebound would be seen in case of a break of 1.1597 resistance, break of 1.1891 resistance is needed to indicate fall from 1.2467 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bearish.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.30; (P) 110.19; (R1) 110.64; «www.actionforex.com».

USD/JPY continues to consolidate within established range of 109.12 and 111.76 today. Further consolidation could still be seen and another recovery to 112.03/39 resistance zone could not be ruled out. But upside should be limited there and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 109.78 will bring retest of 108.99 medium term support. Sustained break will confirm recent down trend has resumed for next downside target of 100% projection of 124.13 to 111.59 from 117.94 at 105.40 first.

In the bigger picture, the three wave structure of the up trend from 101.65 to 124.13 suggests that it’s corrective in nature. Such development flipped favor to the case that the rally from 101.65 could indeed be the final leg of a long term triangle formation (147.68, 101.22, 135.20, 101.65, 124.13). The break of falling trend line (147.68, 135.20) was merely a throwover in the last leg. Sustained trading below 108.99 low will add more credence to this case and put key long term support zone of 101.22/65 into focus. On the upside, break of 115.91 resistance is needed to be the first signal that fall from 124.13 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bearish.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.18; (P) 161.63; (R1) 162.38; «www.actionforex.com»

EUR/JPY continues to consolidate within established range of 158.67 and 164.30 today. As discussed before, with EUR/JPY still kept below 164.00/26 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 167.62 to 158.67 at 164.26) and struggling to take out 55 days EMA, the case that rise from 149.27 has already completed at 167.72 is in favor. That is, price actions from 168.93 is developing into larger scale consolidation and the last falling leg is in progress. Below 160.44 will bring retest of 158.67 and break will indicate fall from 167.62 has resumed for 61.8% retracement of 149.27 to 167.72 at 156.31 first. On the other hand, sustained break of 164.00/26 cluster resistance will flip favors back to the case that price action from 167.72 is merely consolidation to rise from 149.27. and will bring retest of this high and then 168.93 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, break of trend line support (137.16, 150.75) confirmed that medium term rally rally from 130.60 has made an important medium term top at 168.93. However, subsequent sharp correction from there to 149.27 was supported by long term rising channel. Hence, long term up trend from 88.97 (00 low) remains intact. But break of 168.93 high is needed to confirm such up trend has resumed. However, sustained break of 149.27 low will also have the long term rising channel taken out, which in turn add much weight to the case that rise from 88.97 has indeed completed at 168.83 and bring much deeper medium term decline.

Forex News Digest

«www.bloomberg.com»

«www.bloomberg.com»

«www.bloomberg.com»

«www.bloomberg.com»

«www.bloomberg.com»

«c.moreover.com»
Tue, 20 Nov 2007 04:29:00 GMT from CNBC

«c.moreover.com»
Tue, 20 Nov 2007 04:24:00 GMT from Gulf News

«c.moreover.com»
Tue, 20 Nov 2007 03:57:00 GMT from NEWS.com.au

«c.moreover.com»
Tue, 20 Nov 2007 03:30:00 GMT from Yahoo! India

«c.moreover.com»
Tue, 20 Nov 2007 03:19:00 GMT from Shanghai Daily

«www.actionforex.com» Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
07:00 EUR Germany PPI M/M Oct 0.40% 0.30% 0.20%
07:00 EUR Germany PPI Y/Y Oct 1.70% 1.60% 1.50%
07:15 CHF Swiss Trade balance (chf) Oct 1.558M 1500M 1799M 1708M
09:30 GBP U.K. PSNCR M/M Oct -8.25 B 8.964B
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI distribution trade Nov -9 -6
12:00 CAD Canada CPI core M/M Oct 0.10% 0.40%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI core Y/Y Oct 2.00% 2.00%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI M/M Oct 0.20% 0.20%
12:00 CAD Canada CPI Y/Y Oct 2.80% 2.50%
13:30 USD U.S. Building permits Oct 1.21M 1.261M
13:30 USD U.S. Building permits M/M Oct N/A -4.60%
13:30 USD U.S. Housing starts Oct 1.170 M 1.191M
13:30 USD U.S. Housing starts M/M Oct N/A -10.20%
19:00 USD Minutes of FOMC Meeting

«www.actionforex.com»

Sergey Gordeev: The man who may save Soviet architecture

November 30th, 2007
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NEW YORK: On most nights, the Russian Samovar, a dimly lighted restaurant at the edge of the theater district in Midtown Manhattan, is a gloomy blend of new Russian money and faded ?migr? glamour.

But recently its upstairs dining room was haunted by ghosts from the 1920s and 30s, the golden age of the Soviet avant-garde. The grandson of the Constructivist architect Moisei Ginzburg stood in a corner chatting with the daughter of Alexei Dushkin, who once designed subway stations for Stalin. A few steps away, the daughter of the Soviet planner Nikolai Miliutin sipped cranberry vodka with Barry Bergdoll, the Museum of Modern Arts top architecture curator.

They were all there for a symposium dinner related to “Lost Vanguard: Soviet Modernist Architecture, 1922-32,” a show of recent photographs by Richard Pare at the Modern that conveys the fragile state of so many architectural monuments built in that heady era.

Yet the buzz in the room had less to do with Russias architectural heritage than with a celebrity who had not yet walked through the door: Sergey Gordeev, a 34-year-old billionaire developer and Russian senator who helped finance the show at the Modern.

Two years ago, Gordeev bought a share of the Melnikov House (1927) in Moscow, setting off a panic in the citys small but tightly knit preservation community. With its cylindrical interlocking forms, a hypnotic blend of Modernist purity and Russian mysticism, the house is considered a landmark of Soviet architecture. Yet it stands on valuable land in the city center.

Preservationists feared that Gordeev, who made his money in the rough-and-tumble Russian real estate market, might bulldoze the house to make way for the kind of gaudy new development that has become emblematic of the new Russia.

Today, the Melnikov House not only survives but also seems destined to become a museum. And that is mostly, if not all, due to Gordeev, who has emerged as a white-knight protector of Soviet architecture.

Last year he also bought the Burevestnik Factory Workers Club, another revered building by Melnikov, in suburban Moscow. Gordeev founded the Russian Avant-Garde Foundation, whose mandate includes fostering innovative new architecture and publishing books on Russian architecture as well as protecting and restoring Soviet-era landmarks.

He recently bought the archives of the architects Ivan Leonidov and Alexei Shchusev, and he plans to make the material available to scholars. He has introduced legislation in the Russian parliament that would require the removal of advertising billboards from the citys architectural landmarks. (The bill was recently approved by the upper chamber and is now in the lower chamber.)

“Hes polished up his image,” said Pare, who is negotiating to sell an archive of about 10,000 negatives to Gordeev. “Hes evolved from this shadowy figure to saint overnight.”

With his fingers in so many pies, it can seem as though Gordeevs hands hold the fate of one of the greatest legacies of 20th-century Modernism. And while the preservationists who once feared him now fervently praise him, they privately admit to some disquiet.

Meanwhile, Gordeev seems to have set his sights on a wider playing field: New Yorks cultural institutions. He donated heavily to the Guggenheim Museum last year. And when the Modern was short of financing for the Vanguard show, it was Gordeev who wrote the check.

(That Thomas Krens, director of the Guggenheim Foundation, showed up at a Modern dinner only reinforced a perception that New York institutions are in thrall to Gordeev, or at least his easy way with donations.)

When Gordeev finally arrived at the Samovar, he slipped into the crowd as quietly as a cat. A slim, well-built man with windswept hair and piercing blue eyes, he was the picture of casual wealth in his tailored gray suit and open-collared shirt. Although 34, he looks younger, like a skateboarder who had to dress up for a dinner with the grown-ups.

Leaning against a wall near a Russian-style buffet, he chatted enthusiastically about the symposium, where he had spoken that day about his foundations mission. He said that the centerpiece of the foundations efforts would be the Melnikov House, which he plans to transform into a museum, “like Le Corbusiers Villa Savoye or Sir John Soanes house in London.”

“Ive already spent $4 million on the Melnikov House,” he added. “I really think to do preservation in the proper way - government doesnt have the money for that. I like the situation in America, where preservation has the support of private institutions. This is the right model for Russia, where there are a lot of rich people.”

As hedge against inflation, safest investments are Tips

November 30th, 2007
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Today I’ve got answers to questions from readers about tax preparers, inflation hedges and student loans.

Q: Jonathan P. asks, “Between the increasing national debt, looming Social Security insolvency, out-of-control Medicare expenses, Iraq war costs and the falling dollar, I have a fear that we will eventually face high or even hyper-inflation. Where is a good place to invest to protect yourself from this contingency?”

A: Stephen Cecchetti, a professor at Brandeis International Business School, disagrees with Jonathan’s premise - that inflation is going to be a problem. However, if an investor did want to hedge against inflation, the safest way to do it would be with Treasury Inflation Indexed Securities, he says.

These are U.S. Treasury bonds whose return is partly linked to inflation. Often called Tips, they pay a fixed interest rate plus a variable rate tied to the Consumer Price Index. The variable portion is not paid out, but is added to principal. Investors don’t get it until they cash in their bond, but they owe tax on it as it accrues.

The difference between the fixed yield on Tips and the yield on regular Treasury bonds with the same maturity is the expected inflation rate. Recently, this difference has been running around 2.3 percentage points. If you are sure inflation will be higher than 2.3 percent a year, you would prefer Tips over regular Treasuries.

The Bureau of the Public Debt plans to sell 10-year Tips on Thursday and five-year Tips on Oct. 23. For tax reasons, it’s simpler to buy Tips in a tax-sheltered account or through a mutual fund.

Another way to hedge against inflation is with Series I U.S. savings bonds. They are similar to Tips in that they pay a fixed rate plus a variable rate tied to the consumer price index. If you buy an I bond today, you will earn a fixed rate of 1.3 percent plus the inflation rate. You don’t owe tax on I bonds until you cash them in, so from that standpoint they are simpler than Tips. But if you’re worried about inflation, Tips are probably the better option.

You can buy Tips and I bonds in a Treasury Direct account. To learn more or open an account, visit «www.treasurydirect.gov»/.

Q: Kay writes, “I have been using a ‘retired’ tax preparer for the last few years. He has always been able to answer my questions fully and does research for my returns each year. I’m very satisfied with his work. However, I pay him what I would pay a currently licensed professional. What more would I get if he were currently licensed? Guarantees of security, accuracy, recourse in case of errors? Do CPAs carry insurance that would protect me in case my financial data were compromised?”

A: Believe it or not, anybody can be a tax preparer. No federal law requires tax preparers to be trained, tested or licensed - although many are. California is one of few states that imposes any requirements on paid preparers.

Any person who gets paid to do taxes, retired or not, is a paid preparer and must sign the returns they prepare.

No matter who prepares your tax return, however, you are responsible for its accuracy and the payment of taxes, penalties and interest. Many preparers promise that if they make a mistake, they will pay the resulting penalties and interest - but not your tax. No law requires them to make this guarantee, though.

If you have a beef with your preparer, you can sue him or her in civil court. Many preparers buy errors and omissions insurance that will pay judgments against them, but they do not have to obtain this.

All financial service providers, including tax preparers, are required under the federal Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act to ensure the security and confidentiality of customer information.

There are four types of preparers, each with different (or no) education and licensing requirements.

Certified public accountants and tax attorneys must be licensed by their states, complete a course of study, pass a rigorous test and meet their governing organization’s continuing educational requirements.

Enrolled agents are licensed by the Internal Revenue Service, must pass an IRS test and complete at least 72 hours of continuing education every three years.

These three types must meet ethical and other standards spelled out in Treasury Department Circular 230. They can represent taxpayers before the Internal Revenue Service in all matters including audits, collections actions and appeals - whether they prepared the return or not.

All other preparers - and there are gobs of them - are called unenrolled agents. They can represent taxpayers only in audits of returns they prepared.

Only a few states impose any licensing or educational requirements on unenrolled preparers.

Some firms set their own standards. H&R Block - which has about 5,000 enrolled and 85,000 unenrolled preparers - requires unenrolled ones to take 104 hours of in-house training, pass a test and complete 30 hours of continuing education per year.

California requires unenrolled preparers to register with the California Tax Education Council, but this is not a licensing program, says Celeste Heritage, the council’s administrator.

To register, a preparer must post a $5,000 bond and complete 60 hours of initial education at an approved school and 20 hours per year thereafter. There is no testing requirement, and the council has no enforcement powers.

Oregon licenses unenrolled agents and makes them pass a test.

Nina Olson, the IRS taxpayer advocate, has been pushing Congress to regulate all tax preparers. She wants them to register, pass a test, get continuing education and meet ethical standards.

Olson, who was an unenrolled preparer herself for many years, is concerned about companies that use tax preparation to get customers in the door and then sell them other things, from refund anticipation loans to cars.

There’s no easy answer to Kay’s question. Personally, I’d want a licensed CPA or enrolled agent. But if she trusts her tax preparer, I see no reason to change, assuming he keeps up with the ever-changing tax laws and is properly licensed or registered. If the preparer is not a licensed CPA, enrolled agent or tax lawyer, Kay should make sure he is registered at «www.ctec.org».

Finally, Kay should ask her preparer the same type of questions she asked me: What kind of education do you have? Do you have malpractice insurance? Will you pay my penalties and interest if you make a mistake? How do you safeguard my data?

For tips on choosing a tax preparer, see links.sfgate.com/ZBBT.

Q: Kathy H. has a question about my Sept. 16 column on student loans. “Your column mentioned an income-contingent repayment program, open to anyone regardless of occupation. It said that a borrower would have to consolidate or reconsolidate into federal direct loans to participate. I called Citibank, with whom I consolidated my loans about 10 years ago, and they gave me no help on this. How do I go about reconsolidating?”

A: There are two ways to get federally guaranteed college loans - from private sector lenders like Citibank under the Family Education Loan Program and from the U.S. Department of Education’s direct loan program.

The income-contingent program is only available under the direct loan program.

If Kathy had not yet consolidated with Citibank, she could consolidate them under the direct program fairly easily by saying she was unable to find income-sensitive repayment terms acceptable to her in a private-sector loan.

Since she has already consolidated them with Citibank, it’s going to be harder, says Mark Kantrowitz, who runs Finaid.com. To reconsolidate in the direct loan program - and become eligible for income-sensitive repayment - her loan must be selected for default aversion by the agency that guarantees the loan.

If Kathy’s loan has not been selected for default aversion, “she should call her guaranty agency, explain that she’s having a hard time making her payments, and see if they will let it through,” Kantrowitz says.

She also could call the direct loan program at (800) 557-7392 “and see if they might be able to contact the guaranty agency and get her selected.” The higher her debt and the lower her income, the more likely she is to succeed.

For additional help, she could call the Federal Student Aid office ombudsman at (877) 557-2575.

If she does not succeed, starting July 1, 2009, there will be a new income-based repayment program that is better than the existing income-contingent payment program and will be available for both private-sector and direct consolidation loans.

Net Worth runs Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. E-mail Kathleen Pender at kpender@sfchronicle.com.

Paedophilia a result of faulty wiring, scientists suggest

November 30th, 2007
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Paedophilia may be caused by faulty wiring in the brain, a controversial study suggests.

Scientists came to the conclusion after comparing the brain scans of child molesters and non-sexual criminals.

They found that convicted paedophiles had significantly less “white matter” in their brains.

White matter is composed of message-carrying nerve fibres, as opposed to the nerve cell bodies which make up “grey matter”. It is what wires different parts of the brain together.

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Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans were taken of the men’s brains and analysed by computer

The findings, published in the Journal of Psychiatry Research, challenge the popular belief that paedophilia is triggered by childhood trauma or abuse. But according to the Canadian scientist who led the research, it does not let paedophiles off the hook.

Dr James Cantor, from the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health in Toronto, said: “There is nothing in this research that says paedophiles shouldn’t be held criminally responsible for their actions.

“Not being able to choose your sexual interests doesn’t mean you can’t choose what you do.”

Previous research from the same team has strongly hinted that brain development may hold the key to paedophilia.

Paedophiles tend to have low IQs, are three times more likely than average to be left handed, and are often of short stature.

The scientists are calling for more research to be conducted on the way the brain governs sexual interests. Such information may yield strategies for preventing the development of paedophilia, they argue.

A total of 127 men took part in the study comprising equal numbers of paedophiles and non-sexual offenders.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging scans were taken of the men’s brains and analysed by computer.

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