If you bought a carton of eggs recently, you may have been bowled over by sticker shock.
The consumer price index for eggs is up 34.7% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January, a dozen Grade A large eggs cost $2.18, up from $1.55 in 2007.
The average retail price of eggs in 2007 climbed 28.3% to $1.68 a dozen, from $1.31 in 2006.
All food prices are up, thanks to higher commodity prices and increased energy costs. But eggs rose more than any other food category last year because they’re more closely tied to farm and wholesale prices, says Ephraim Leibtag, an economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.
The wholesale price of eggs also has soared amid strong demand. In 2007, the average wholesale price of eggs jumped 58.3% to 93 cents a dozen. That’s been good for business at Cal-Maine Foods, () the nation’s largest producer and distributor of fresh shell eggs.
Lots Of Eggs
In the 2007 fiscal year ended last June, Cal-Maine sold about 685 million dozen eggs, or about 15.5% of domestic shell egg production. Its eggs are distributed in 29 states.
As a commodity player, Cal-Maine’s fortunes are tied to supply and demand. When egg prices rise, much of the increase flows to Cal-Maine’s bottom line. Cal-Maine produces about 80% of the eggs it sells.
Executives weren’t available. But in the fiscal 2008 second quarter ended Dec. 1, Cal-Maine’s net average selling price rose 54.6% from a year ago, to $1.183. Earnings during the quarter jumped 526% year over year, to $1.69. Sales rose 62% to $223.7 million.
“These results reflect the favorable market conditions with egg prices reaching record levels during the quarter,” Cal-Maine Chief Executive Fred Adams said in a written statement.
The industry has gotten a lift from positive reports from the medical and nutritional communities. Eggs represent a good value compared with other foods, Adams said. As a result, demand was strong from the retail and food-service markets as well as for liquid, frozen and dried eggs. The export markets also has been strong.
No analysts follow Cal-Maine. But Don Hodges, co-manager of the Hodges Fund, sees it as a good investment. He started buying the stock for the fund on Dec. 6, 2007. On Feb. 22, the Hodges Fund owned 260,000 shares of Cal-Maine.
Why Cal-Maine? In the small-cap portion of the fund, Hodges looks for companies that are under the radar screen with good earnings and good fundamentals. Cal-Maine fit the bill: “This company is somewhat obscure and not well known, and over the years they’ve increased their share of the egg business from around 7% to about 15%. And that’s a lot of eggs.”
The egg market is highly cyclical. Cal-Maine, for one, has been hurt during down cycles. Most recently, in fiscal 2006, it posted a loss of 4 cents a share amid soft market conditions. That year, egg supply was greater than demand most of the time, resulting in low egg prices.
Now, Cal-Maine is reaping the benefits of the sizzling egg market.
“There’s almost a perfect storm emerging,” said Cindy McGarrigle, vice president for industry programs at the American Egg Board.
On the supply side, there’s been a gradual increase in cage space for hens as part of an effort to assure that hens are treated humanely. Allocating more cage space has reduced the overall flock size, McGarrigle says. Fewer hens have led to fewer eggs, which has placed downward pressure on supply.
That’s been a plus for egg producers.
“The key drivers of profit are industry supply growth and its constraints,” said Michael Swanson, an agricultural economist at Wells Fargo Bank. “The recent restrictions on hens per cage and permitting of new facilities are positives.”
McGarrigle says there is a worldwide shortage of eggs, with an increased demand for exports that has put pressure on the egg supply here.
Another plus: Even with the higher prices, eggs are still cheaper than other protein products, which have also seen prices rise, says Leibtag. Eggs are a good, inexpensive source of protein.
Another factor that influences the price of eggs is the cost of feed corn and soybean meal. The prices of the key crops, corn and soybeans, are near all-time highs.
Market prices for corn remain higher, in part because of increasing demand from ethanol producers, says a Cal-Maine report.
Market prices for soybean meal remain higher as a result of farmers switching acres from soybeans to corn.
As the cost for producing eggs has gone up, farmers have increased the price of eggs to cover the costs, says Argus Research senior analyst Bill Selesky, who follows seed and chemical companies.
“That’s why we’re seeing prices of end products like eggs, milk and butter going higher,” he said. “Farmers tend to pass prices on to consumers as long as demand is strong.”
At Cal-Maine, feed costs average about 60% of its farm production costs. In the second quarter, the cost of sales rose 30.9% from a year ago due to the higher cost of feed ingredients and the cost of shell eggs purchased from outside producers.
Chicken Feed
Increases in the price of shell eggs offset the increase in the costs of feed ingredients and resulted in a net increase in gross profit, to 34% in the fiscal 2008 second quarter from 18.1% of net sales in the prior year.
Still, watchers are cautious. High profits will push producers to get more eggs into the market, Swanson says.
“There’s a lag between the time people start producing eggs and when eggs are rolled out to consumers,” he said. “Eventually they bring in too much capacity as they did in 2005 and 2006.”
Also rising energy and feed costs could take their toll on margins.
The other factor is the possible impact of a recession on consumer demand, Swanson adds.
“Every food gets hit,” he said. “Some get hit harder, and eggs might have less negative. But it’s still there.”
If there’s a recession, the farmers would have a tough time passing on the high costs, Selesky says.
“But here at Argus, we don’t forecast a recession,” he said.