Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 29 07 14:15 GMT |
Forex Mid-Day Technical Report Dollar Regains Strength, Steady after GDP Revision

Dollar regains strength against European majors today as correction continues. Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 4.9% annualized rate, fastest growth in four years and slightly above expectation of 4.8%. The growth rate was also much stronger than Q2’s 3.9%. However, the data did little to change the view of steep slowdown in Q4 due to housing and mortgage markets problems. Jobless claims surged sharply higher to 352k, the first above 350k reading since Fed and signal a more sever deterioration in the job market. New home sales will be released later in the morning. Recent Fedspeaks will also continue with Mishkin and Bernanke featured today.

Sterling gave back yesterday’s gain after dovish comments from BoE members on the testimony before Parliamentary Treasury Select Committee. Blanchflower also made clear his intent to vote for a decrease again in December, though the overall vote will still be tight. Sterling is also weighed down by steeper than expected slow down in how price growth which saw Nationwide House price Index fell by the most since Jun 95, -0.8% mom in Nov, dragging yoy rate to 6.9% versus expectation of 8.4%. Germany’s job market continues to show surprised improvement. Unemployment rate dropped further from 8.7% to 8.6% in Nov, as the number of jobless fell by a further -53k. However, Eurozone Retail PMI fell for the third consecutive month to 45.9 in Nov, suggesting the majority of purchasing managers are feeling pessimistic. Euro heads to retest yesterday’s low. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4749; (P) 1.4804; (R1) 1.4895; «www.actionforex.com»

EUR/USD’s recovery was limited at 1.4859 and eases back today. At this point, correction from 1.4966 is still expected to extend lower as long as 1.4859 resistance holds, probably towards 1.4519 clusters support. Above 1.4859 will indicate that fall from 1.4966 has possibly completed and bring retest of 1.5 cluster resistance.

As discussed before, while rise from 1.4014 is completed, it’s early to confirm that rise from 1.3360 has completed too. Focus is now on 1.4519 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.4014 to 1.4966 at 1.4490). Decisive break of this support zone will add much credence to the case that rally from 1.3360 has completed too after failing 1.5 key medium resistance and bring deeper correction to 1.4014/4281 support zone before resuming the long term up trend. But strong rebound above this level will suggest another rise should be seen before making a medium term top.

In the bigger picture, regardless of internal structure, medium term up trend from 1.1639 remains in force and is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and is now close to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 target which will overlap with 1.5 psychological resistance. Upside could be limited by this resistance initially on overbought condition. Sustained trading above this key resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally is still underway to next projection target of 100% projection at 1.7048. On the downside, firm break of 1.3851 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal that this up trend from 1.1639 has completed. Otherwise, long term outlook remains bullish.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 2.0657; (P) 2.0744; (R1) 2.0907; «www.actionforex.com»

Cable’s rebound was limited by at 2.0380, below mentioned 2.0845 cluster resistance and eased back to 2.06 level today. Short term outlook remains neutral at this moment. With 2.0845 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 2.0353 at 2.0852) remains intact, the original view still holds. That is, rise from 1.9652 has completed after touching medium term rising channel resistance. Fall from 2.1161 is expected to extend further to retest medium term rising channel support (now at 2.0040) after finishing the current corrective rebound from 2.0353. Below 2.0579 support will bring retest of 2.0353 low first. However, sustained break of 2.0845 cluster resistance will indicate that fall from 2.1161 has completed and will bring retest of this high.

In the bigger picture, medium term rally from 1.7047, regardless of internal structure, is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (04 high) with subsequent correction ended at 1.7047. Break of 61.8% projection level at 2.0677 now encourages further medium term rally to next projection target of 100% projection 1.3680 (01 low) to 1.9554 (05 high) from 1.7047 (05 low) at 2.2921. On the downside, decisive break of the medium term rising channel is needed to signal that such medium term rally has made a top. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bullish.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1032; (P) 1.1114; (R1) 1.1188; «www.actionforex.com».

USD/CHF’s rebound from 1.0890 resumes today and reaches as high as 1.1199 so far. At this point, further rally is still in favor as long as 1.1097 support holds. However, upside is still expected to be limited by 1.1298 resistance and bring resumption of the fall from 1.2467. on the downside, below 1.1071 will flip intraday bias back to the downside, indicating recovery is completed and bring retest of 1.0890 low.

In the bigger picture, the current preferred interpretation is that fall from 1.3282 was initially contained at 1.1919 and turned into sideway triangle consolidation that completed at 1.2467, where the medium term down trend resumed. Sustained trading below 1.1100 clusters support (95 low and 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2467 at 1.1103) encourages decline to next medium term target of 161.8% projection at 1.0260. On the upside, however, break of 1.1298 resistance will be bring stronger rebound towards 38.2% retracemment of 1.2467 to 1.8090 at 1.1492 first.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.71; (P) 109.59; (R1) 110.92; «www.actionforex.com».

USD/JPY is bounded in tight range after rebound from 107.21 reached as high as 110.47. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 109.13 minor support holds and further rise could still be seen. But still, upside is expected to be limited by 111.76 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 117.94. On the downside, below 109.13 will indicate rebound has completed and bring retest of 107.21 low.

In the bigger picture, sharp decline from 124.13 remains in force and is expected to extend at least further to 100% projection of 124.13 to 111.59 from 117.94 at 105.40 and will likely bring retest key long term support zone of 101.22/65. On the upside, above 111.76 resistance will suggest that fall from 117.94 has completed and bring lengthier consolidation. But a break of 115.91 resistance is needed to signal down trend from 124.13 has completed too. Otherwise, medium term outlook remains bearish.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.14; (P) 162.36; (R1) 164.50; «www.actionforex.com»

EUR/JPY’s rise from 159.36 reaches as high as 163.62 earlier today. But subsequent retreat and touching of 161.83 minor support turned intraday outlook neutral for the moment. Outlook remains unchanged. With EUR/JPY still kept below 164.00/26 cluster resistance and struggling at 55 days EMA (now at 162.80), the case that rise from 149.27 has already completed at 167.72 is still in favor. That is, price actions from 168.93 is developing into larger scale consolidation and the last falling leg is in progress, with price actions from 158.67 as interim consolidation. Below 161.83 will suggest that EUR/JPY has failed the 164.00/26 cluster resistance again and will encourage a retest of 159.36 support first.

Also, note that choppy trading could still continue until a break of the established range of 158.67 and 164.30. On the downside, break of 158.67 will confirm fall from 167.62 has resumed for 61.8% retracement of 149.27 to 167.72 at 156.31 first. On the upside, sustained break of 164.00/26 cluster resistance will flip favors back to the case that price action from 167.72 is merely consolidation to rise from 149.27 and will bring retest of this high and then 168.93 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, break of trend line support (137.16, 150.75) confirmed that medium term rally from 130.60 has made an important medium term top at 168.93. However, subsequent sharp correction from there to 149.27 was supported by long term rising channel. Hence, long term up trend from 88.97 (00 low) remains intact. But break of 168.93 high is needed to confirm such up trend has resumed.

Forex News Digest

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Thu, 29 Nov 2007 10:28:00 GMT from The Australian

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Thu, 29 Nov 2007 10:16:00 GMT from Reuters UK

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Thu, 29 Nov 2007 10:02:00 GMT from Yahoo! Canada

«www.actionforex.com» Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Industrial prod’n M/M Oct 1.60% 1.80% -1.40%
23:50 JPY Japan Industrial prod’n Y/Y Oct 4.70% 4.00% 0.80%
07:00 GBP U.K. Nationwide hse price M/M Nov -0.80% 0.10% 1.10%
07:00 GBP U.K. Nationwide hse price Y/Y Nov 6.90% 8.40% 9.70%
09:00 EUR Germany Unemployment rate Nov 8.60% 8.70% 8.70%
09:00 EUR Germany Unemployment change Nov -53K -30.0K -40.0K
09:45 GBP MPC Treasury Committee Hearings
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI distribution trade Nov 13 8 10
13:30 CAD Canada Current account Q3 1.0B 3.5B 8.36B
13:30 CAD Canada PPI M/M Oct -1.10% -0.50% -0.90%
13:30 CAD Canada PPI Y/Y Oct -1.00% N/A 0.10%
13:30 USD U.S. PCE core Q/Q Q3 1.80% 1.80% 1.80%
13:30 USD U.S. GDP deflator Q3 0.90% 0.80% 0.70%
13:30 USD U.S. GDP annualised Q3 4.90% 4.80% 3.90%
13:30 USD U.S. Personal consumption Q3 2.70% 2.80% 3.00%
13:30 USD U.S. Jobless claims Nov 352K 332.0K 330K
15:00 USD U.S. New home sales Oct 0.75M 0.77M
15:00 USD U.S. New homes change Oct -2.60% 4.80%

«www.actionforex.com»

Average Canadian gasoline prices are less than a penny a litre away from their all-time highs, according to a weekly pump-price survey released Tuesday.

The national average cost of a litre of regular gas rose to $1.252 a litre, up 2.2 cents from last week, Calgary-based MJ Ervin & Associates said.

The record high in MJ Ervin’s weekly look at pump prices came in September 2005, in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The average price then: $1.26 a litre.

The most recent survey which looks at prices at 400 stations across the country finds that a litre of regular is above $1.20 in all but two of the 60 cities surveyed. The cheapest gas was found in Kingston, Ont., at $1.146 and St. Catharines, Ont., at $1.199 a litre.

In Yellowknife and Labrador City, on the other hand, motorists are paying just over $1.41 a litre.

Gasbuddy.com a web site that tracks gas prices across North America said the average price in Canada was $1.263 on Tuesday.

During Tuesday’s question period, NDP Leader Jack Layton accused the government of doing nothing to control high gas prices.

“You cannot trust this government to respond to this crisis,” Layton told the House. But Prime Minsiter Stephen Harper dismissed the charge, saying that while other parties want higher gas taxes, his government has lowered the GST by two percentage points to return more money to Canadian households.

“It’s obviously absolutely correct to observe that the price of oil and gas is rising,” Harper said. “But you know, Mr. Speaker the best the opposition can come up with is higher gas taxes. That’s obviously not the right policy.”

U.S. gasoline prices are at a record $3.60 US per U.S. gallon. They’re already above $4 US in some areas.

World oil prices the biggest factor in the rising price of gas retreated from Monday’s record highs to about $115 US a barrel, down $3. But oil prices remain five times higher than were just six years ago.

The oil boom has helped to drive profits at the world’s biggest energy companies to breathtaking heights. On Tuesday, Royal Dutch Shell and BP reported total profits of almost $17 billion US for the first quarter $9.1 billion for Shell and $7.6 billion for BP.

Petro-Canada reported its Q1 profit almost doubled to $1.08 billion. Post a commentPeople have commented on this story Recommend this story People have recommended this story Story Tools: | | Text Size: | | Story comments (0) Sort: Most recent | First to last | Most recommended

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(Note: CBC does not endorse and is not responsible for the content of external sites - links will open in new window) People who read this also read … Consumer Headlines 00 Average Canadian gasoline prices are less than a penny a litre away from their all-time highs, according to a weekly pump-price survey released Tuesday. 00 Rogers Communications Inc. said Tuesday it has reached an agreement to bring Apple Inc.’s iPhone to Canada later this year. 00 The academic advantages girls have at age 15 largely explain why they dominate university classes, two Statistics Canada researchers say. 00 Lasik gets all the advertising, but there are alternate eye surgeries from a simpler laser approach to implantable lenses that might solve your squint. 00 An Ontario man has been given a two-year conditional sentence for his part in a telemarketing fraud that stole an estimated millions of dollars from businesses. Consumer Life Features –> «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca»

Passengers of American Airlinesare expected toface more travel troubleson Friday as the company announced it would cancel another 570 flights to continue to inspect wiring on some of its jets for a fourth straight day.

OnThursday, theairline cancelled 933 flights,on top of the almost 1,100 cancelled Wednesday, and more than 700 earlier in the week. Passengers wait in line at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago on Wednesday.
(Paul Beaty/Associated Press)

The cancellations stem from inspections of U.S. planesbeing carried out by the Federal Aviation Administration. The inspectionswere sparked bya congressional hearing last weekthat found Southwest Airlines had kept 40 planes in the air that hadn’tbeen properly inspected.

Airline industry observers said it is one of the biggest disruptions to air travel since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The airline estimated Wednesdaythat more than 100,000 travellers were affected by the cancellations with airports in Dallas and Chicago hardest hit.

Some Canadian airportswere affected as well, as Thursdayflights between Calgary and Dallas were cancelled. Six flightsfrom Toronto were alsocancelled, while Montreal had four cancellations.

The airline says it has been providing vouchers for later flights, as well as meals, hotels and ground transportation for stranded passengers, though some travellers including, Mary Rickert, complained of chaos.

“It’s an absolute disaster,” Rickert said of the lines at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport. “It’s a four-hour wait just to get to the ticket counter. Shoot me now.”

The FAA’s second round of checks are expected to continue through June.

The FAA is investigating American Airlines’ aging MD-80 jets, which make up almost half its fleet.Federal inspectors say they havefound problems with the spacing and direction of cords used to secure bundles of wires in the planes’ auxiliary hydraulic systems.

If the wiring rubs together, the fear is it could ignite fuel vapours and cause an explosion in the fuel tank, which could bring down a plane.

American Airlines CEO Gerard Arpey said Thursday that the cancellations will cost the company tens of millions of dollars, but he says American can withstand the losses. Wiring didn’t meet FAA standards

A spokesman forthe airlinesaid an FAA inspector checked several MD-80s Monday and found that some of the wiring work performed two weeks ago didn’t meet FAA standards.The next day,American begantaking planes out of service so that wiring bundles could be inspected and stowed properly in the wheel wells.

Despite the problems found by inspectors,American has said that passenger safety was never jeopardized. Arpey said he takes full responsibility for the airline’s failure to comply withthe federal safety rule.

While other airlines have also had to ground planes, the cancellations at American Airlines are by far the most severe. Midwest Airlines said Thursday personnel were reinspecting wiring harnesses on 13 planes.

The cancellations and resulting loss of revenue come as American faces high fuel prices and a weakening economy.

The airline’s parent company, AMR, is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings in two weeks, and analysts are forecasting a loss of more than $300 million, according to a survey by Thomson Financial. With files from the Associated Press Post a commentPeople have commented on this story Recommend this story People have recommended this story Story Tools: | | Text Size: | | Story comments (0) Sort: Most recent | First to last | Most recommended

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Note: The CBC does not necessarily endorse any of the views posted. By submitting your comments, you acknowledge that CBC has the right to reproduce, broadcast and publicize those comments or any part thereof in any manner whatsoever. Please note that comments are pre-moderated/reviewed and published according to our . Comment:Characters allowed: 2500 Post Related Internal Links «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» Video Alison Smith reports for CBC-TV (Runs: 3:24) People who read this also read … Money Headlines 00 General Electric Co. reported a smaller-than-expected first-quarter profit on Friday and lowered its outlook for the full year, as a slowing U.S. economy sapped its financial services business. 00 The total number of flights cancelled by American Airlines reached more than 3,000 this week, after another 595 flights were scrapped on Friday. 00 In an unprecedented move, the federal government has blocked the sale of the space technology division of Vancouver-based MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates to a U.S. firm. 00 Stronger exports in February helped push Canada’s trade surplus up by more than $2 billion to $4.9 billion, Statistics Canada said Thursday. 00 Canadian banks have begun to lower fixed mortgage rates to their lowest levels since last spring. Money Features «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» «www.cbc.ca» BIZ HITVideo Update Hourly market wrap from CBC Newsworld

Sun Microsystems is hoping to win over converts to its new NetBeans 6.0 IDE , which came out today.

Since its inception, NetBeans has been about Java. But this time, it’s different. NetBeans 6.0 is extending Sun’s IDE to other languages,including C/C++ , JavaScript and Ruby .

There’s more, too. Gregg Sporar, NetBeans Technology Evangelist, said NetBeans 6.0 will support the .

Sun’s support for Ruby is an expansion of its support via the JRuby effort, which is porting Ruby to Java.

“With JRuby there is a really great runtime available for Ruby and Ruby on Rails developers to use for deployment,” Sporar told InternetNews.com. “It allows them to get all the optimizations of the JVM for free. So we have a natural bridge in JRuby between the Ruby and Java worlds - we want to provide tools on that bridge as well.”

NetBeans 6.0 also includes a number of improvements in the Swing GUI Builder which was formerly known as Project Matisse. The GUI builder which debuted in «www.internetnews.com» is a drag and drop IDE GUI that simplifies layout with automatic layout suggestions for spacing and alignment. For NetBeans 6 Sporar noted that developers will notice the support Sun added for the new Swing Framework and for Beans Binding.

“Those frameworks, along with the enhancements to the NetBeans Swing GUI Builder, dramatically cut the time needed to get a basic Swing application up and running,” Sporar said.

Code completion has been improved in NetBeans 6 with what Sun refers to as ’smarter code completion’. Sporar explained that there are many enhancements that make NetBeans 6 ’smarter’.

“The main one being that the editor is smarter about the context when it displays the suggested code completions,” Sporar commented.

As an example, if a developer has this code:

List al = new

If you press Ctrl-Space at this point, it will offer you only the classes in the system which implements the given interface. And more importantly, it will automatically supply the generic variables.

With the NetBeans 6 release Sun is also hoping to sway users of other IDE’s including its arch-nemesis Eclipse. Sun has gone so far as to setup a testimonial site (http://www.netbeans.org/switch/realstories.html) where developers write their own reasons why they’ve switched.

Overall Sporar is confident that NetBeans 6 is a superior solution to the Eclipse IDE. Eclipse officials on the other regularly mention the fact that they believe «www.internetnews.com».

Plans are already underway for the next iteration of NetBeans which will be called NetBeans 6.1. The plan is to expand support for even more languages. ” We want to extend our support for other languages yet again, so PHP support will be a key deliverable for the 6.1 release,” Sporar said.

LAS VEGAS — Network Access Control (NAC) technology may well be the next great evolution for enterprise networks, providing security and policy compliance.

But as NAC gains steam — shifting from its early-adopter phase to what many industry insiders see as increasingly must-have technology — both enterprises and vendors need to understand the risks they’re taking.

At stake is nothing less than billions of dollars in networking equipment, not to mention the overall security of the enterprise, according to Joel Snyder, the widely regarded NAC expert who ran the NAC Day program today here at the Interop conference.

“Are you ready to add another ‘priority one’ service to your network?” asked Snyder, a senior partner at Opus One, before a capacity crowd of several hundred NAC Day attendees. “What happens if the policy decision point goes down?”

The questions highlight the decision ahead of network admins considering NAC — and they risks they face by relying on the technology. Since NAC is by definition an access control technology, if its services are not operational, then access to the entire network can be threatened.

Consequently, if an enterprise deploys a NAC solution, it’s critical that it ensures that it has the proper redundancy and resiliency demanded by its particular network requirements, Snyder said.

It’s also unclear how much support there is for NAC for remote users, another element buyers should weigh.

“How will you do NAC in remote access and wireless situations?” Snyder asked. “What works inside the LAN should bring you value everywhere. [But] the reality is that some NAC products are only designed to work in one environment.”

Snyder added that when deploying NAC, the network needs to properly take all access methods into account.

In many ways, NAC is a disruptive technology, in that it fundamentally changes the network access paradigm. In the pre-NAC era, a user simply plugged their Ethernet cable into a jack to access the network.

[cob:Special_Report]With NAC, that’s not the case, as any user who plugs in is subjected to an audit to ensure policy compliance before they can proceed.

“When you add NAC to a network, it’s no longer a switching infrastructure — it’s a policy infrastructure,” Snyder said. “You plug something in and only maybe will it work.”

But with that paradigm change, network professionals must cope with another potential hurdle in deploying NAC: the issue of false positives, which could undermine the technology’s perceived usefulness within the enterprise.

But to Snyder, it’s important that the organization as a whole buys into the concept of NAC, seeing such difficulties as a necessary trade-off for network security.

“The goal of NAC is to get people on the network and not to keep devices off the network,” he said. “Make sure that your NAC vendor shows you a management interface, so when things go wrong, you understand what’s going wrong, so you can keep people happy.”

Of course, these problems all mean enterprises have a great deal on which to reflect when considering whether to implement NAC.

“What value does NAC bring to the organization?” Snyder asked, citing vendors’ traditional high-level answers, including compliance and security.

But he added that it’s difficult to provide actual metrics for calculating the return on investment (ROI) of any security technology.

“I can’t answer the question for you, but when you go figure out your deployment, you need to answer why your organization should spend time and money on NAC and what is the ROI going to be.”