Asian businesses and workers suffer from dollar’s weakness
May 16th, 2008
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HONG KONG: Anthony del Rosario, who crews an oil tanker plying the route between the Middle East and South Korea, is sending home less money to his family in the Philippines. Takeshi Okada, a shoe manufacturer in Japan, is concerned about the possibility of declining export sales.
And Brenton Fry, who heads the import-export operation of an old Australian winemaker, Yalumba, is fighting to hold down retail prices for wine sold in the United States by cutting profit margins.
All three have a common worry: The sliding value of the U.S. dollar against most global currencies is putting them under increasing financial pressure.
The decline in the buying power of the dollar is, according to economic analysts, only a high-profile symptom of the economic slowdown and credit crunch in the United States. But for many businesses and workers who once regarded themselves as lucky to be paid in dollars or dollar-linked currencies, the depreciating U.S. currency is a sure sign of tougher economic times ahead in Asia and globally.
“The dollar is a very visible financial variable,” said Duncan Wooldridge, chief Asian economist at UBS in Hong Kong. “But the underlying problem is that the U.S. is going to be working through some of the excesses it built up in recent years, and that is just going to mean less demand for Asian exports than we have grown accustomed to.”
The dollar - in general decline for much of this decade - has fallen nearly 12 percent against the yen and 6 percent against the euro just since the beginning of this year.
The pain is felt well beyond Asia. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France said Wednesday that he wanted to work with Britain to press U.S. policy makers to put an end to the dollars decline.
“Cant we weigh together on our American friends so that the dollar recovers?” Sarkozy said in an interview with BBC, according to a transcript of the interview given to reporters by his press office.
Companies like European Aeronautic Defense Space are cutting jobs and relocating production abroad to offset the competitive disadvantage of selling goods in foreign markets.
On Wednesday, the dollar traded at 99.45, a bit stronger than recent 13-year lows. The euro was also at $1.5709, slightly below a record high.
The real problem for many exporters is a likely U.S. recession, but the “weak dollar makes those goods more difficult to sell into the U.S. market, so it amplifies the downturn,” said Wooldridge.
For Misuzu, a maker of womens shoes based in Tokyo that employs about 175 people, the strength of the yen against the dollar threatens to eat into export sales in Taiwan and China because the shoemakers transactions with those countries are conducted in dollars. When those sales are converted back into yen, Misuzu has fewer yen than it would if the dollar were strong.
“I am very concerned about what effect the weaker dollar will have on our overseas sales,” said Okada, a merchandiser with Misuzu. “It could take a few months before we know, but everything depends on our customers, and we will have to wait and see.”
Deepening Misuzus woes is the rising price of crude oil. High oil prices are forcing up the cost of petrochemical products, which make up about 90 percent of the materials used in Misuzus line of shoes.
Despite having limited price increases to less than a third of the product line and capped them at about 10 percent, Misuzu is likely to be one of many Asian exporters to face declining sales in the coming months.
Weaker consumer demand in both the United States and Europe is forecast by economists to significantly reduce Asian export volumes and slow the pace of regional growth. A forecast by Deutsche Bank that growth will slip from an average of 9.2 percent in 12 Asian economies in 2007 to 7.7 percent in 2008 is typical of the view among private sector economists.
But Michael Spencer, Deutsche Banks chief economist for Asia in Hong Kong, said the declining dollar will have little impact on the competitiveness of Asian exporters.
“The dollar is not in itself going to influence exports in Asia,” he said.
“The main thing is that real income growth in the U.S. is slowing down.” Fierce competition among Asian exporters has been forcing them to find production savings and steadily reduce the dollar prices of exports to the United States since 1994, Spencer argued. European companies have been doing the same as the euro rises.
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