Grid surges to 1.8bn after US expansion

May 15th, 2008
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Figures for the year to end- March were buoyed by a first-time contribution from US acquisition KeySpan, which completed at the end of last summer andmade the Grid the second-largest energy-delivery company in America by customer numbers.

The annual is 33p, a one-off rise of 15%. The group reiterated its pledge to grow the payout by 8% a year through to March 2012.

It has repurchased 1.6bn of shares in the past year, and is expecting to return more when it exits the wireless communications business in the UK.

Chief executive Steve Holliday said the outlook will continue to be good for Grid’s shareholders.

‘We have again delivered an excellent operational and financial performance, and this year is all about execution,’ he said.

‘We will build on our regulatory experience, disciplined delivery of our investment plans, and continued implementations of our global operating model.

‘I am confident of delivering further significant improvements, and this is reflected by our progressive dividend policy.’

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Market report: Thursday close

May 15th, 2008
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Broker UBS is forecasting that the price of a barrel of oil will reach $200 within seven years, echoing similar forecasts by Goldman Sachs, with extreme price volatility continuing.

UBS has also raised its forecast for the prices of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate dramatically, with demand continuing to outstrip supply. The broker expects Brent to average $113.50 this year - an increase of 30% on its previous forecast - rising dramatically to $120 on average next year (a 52% gain on its previous forecast), before easing back to $116 in 2010. West Texas Intermediate is pitched at $115 this year, rising to $120 next year.

UBS is house broker to , and has lifted its rating on the oil explorer from neutral to buy and jacked up its target price from 3250p to 4500p. Cairn responded by helping to lead other blue-chips higher with a jump of 144p to 3532p. Cairn, with huge oil reserves in Rajasthan, is one of the broker’s top sector picks.

UBS has also raised , 9p better at 1887p, from neutral to buy and raised its sights on the price from 1850p to 2500p, ahead of what is expected to be positive news on drilling and its exposure to rising gas prices.

It is also a buyer of , 7p cheaper at 949p, with the target jacked up from 1200p to 1450p, , 35p dearer at 1667p, raised from 1800p to 2500p and , up 41p at 8230, upgraded from 900p to 1350p. , 22p better at 924p, is rated neutral with a 1050p target.

Shares generally recouped opening falls but investors remain cautious. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King’s bearish comments on the economy continue to ring in their ears. He has warned that the good times are over, and hinted there is every likelihood of slipping into recession.

The FTSE 100 index rose 35.8 to 6251.8, having been as low as 6168.8. Wall Street opened a touch lower after a sharp drop in industrial production during April. The Dow rose 22.07 to 12,898.38.

Bank shares again came under the hammer following the trading update from , down 8p at 418p.

Royal Bank of Scotland rose 1.98p to 267p despite falling 46p to 272p after the shares went ex its 12bn rights issue with the nil-paid trading at 75p after briefly touching 78p. continued to lose ground in the wake of yesterday’s 300m cash call, the shares falling 9p to 135p. Lehman Brothers has repeated its rating and trimmed its target from 174p to 160p. has cut from hold to sell and repeated its 135p target.

firmed 1p to 680p. The board met today to consider the takeover approach from France’s stateowned electricity supplier EDF, which is believed to have offered 650p a share. Word is the directors will hold out for a higher offer.

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It was the first day of dealings on Aim for independent stockbroker Share, owner of The Share Centre. Shares were offered at 27p, valuing the company at 43.2m. They touched 36p before settling at 31p.

Citigroup has cut , steady at 417p, from buy to hold and repeated its target of 420p following recent impressive numbers. The broker says, given the retailer’s recent share-price performance and lack of near-term trading catalysts, it is downgrading its rating. The price touched a four-year high of 441p last week, having started the year at 295p.

TOMORROW’S AGENDA

may have to issue its second profit warning of the year when it unveils full-year results, as record fuel costs hit earnings. With the cost of crude forecast to keep rising, the carrier has already said it expects fuel to become its biggest single cost by next year. Price pressures have been eased by raising fuel surcharges but BA may feel unable to pass on further increases as consumer spending slows.

Fears also remain about the reputational damage caused by the botched opening of Heathrow’s Terminal 5, although the financial impact will mostly fall in next year’s results. Despite the problems, analysts forecast pre-tax profits will rise to 877m.

Bookmaker issues a trading update. Despite chief executive Chris Bell claiming in February that he has seen no evidence of consumers curbing spending, broker Securities has warned the outlook for the company remains ‘worrying’.

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Green on track to steal M&S crown

May 15th, 2008
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Sir Philip Green has increased the market share in womenswear of his Topshop-to-Bhs empire more than any other retailer in the past 12 months. And the upswing in sales at his stores has put him within striking distance of sector leader Marks & Spencer.

The figures show that the combined group of Bhs and Arcadia, which includes Dorothy Perkins, Topshop, Miss Selfridge and Wallis, boosted their share of spending on women’s clothing from 10.1% to 11.1% in the year to March 2.

That compares with a virtually static M&S at just under 12 per cent. Green’s outperformance could not come at a worse time for the High Street giant.

His old sparring partner Sir Stuart Rose, chief executive of M&S, has found himself increasingly beleaguered after a series of unfortunate events that began with a disappointing Christmas statement followed by a mishandled bid to install himself as executive chairman.

Then last week Rose faced renewed criticism for investing in the Lucky Voice karaoke chain founded by Martha Lane Fox, an independent director at M&S.

The Association of British Insurers, which represents some leading City investors, said the investment may represent a conflict of interests.

By contrast, Green, who has twice tried to buy M&S and was rebuffed by Rose in 2004, is on a roll.

The appointment of Kate Moss to oversee the design of her own range, launched on May 1 last year, has helped raise the profile of the Topshop chain. The ‘Kate Moss Effect’ has been a big draw for shoppers.

Green has also embarked on a refurbishment programme at Bhs and by the end of next month will have revamped 35 of the 185 outlets.

Green told Financial Mail that the figures may simply reflect modest growth in a market that has struggled to grow over the past year during a poor summer and a highly competitive Christmas. ‘I’ve not noticed sales going up that much, but other people may be down,’ said Green. ‘The market is pretty tough at the moment.’

Many fashion retailers had to discount heavily over Christmas to clear stock while costs have been on the rise.

Green said that over the past four weeks, which should have kick-started the summer selling season, the High Street has been like a ‘graveyard’.

SUCCESSFUL: Sir Philip Green and Kate Moss

Retailers last week were falling over each other to challenge what appeared to be hugely optimistic High Street sales figures produced by the Office for National Statistics, which estimated that sales had grown 5.6% in the first quarter. ‘Did they start off by saying “Once upon a time…”?’ asked Green.

Several women’s clothing retailers and footwear chains, including Select Retail, Ethel Austin, Dolcis and Stead & Simpson, have fallen into administration this year. Together the firms account for almost 1,000 stores.

Meanwhile, Icelandic firm Baugur put its MK One chain up for sale this month amid fears it may be struggling, while JJB Sport announced that it would close more than 70 shops. Some analysts believe the clothing market may shrink by 2.5% this year - a landmark drop after a series of bumper years.

They say the bad news for the sector isn’t over yet and expect more victims of the High Street slowdown to emerge.

Those who want to survive would be well advised to keep one eye on Green. He may have failed to acquire M&S, but if he can repeat the market share trick he appears to have pulled off in the past 12 months, Green could be on the point of becoming the largest womenswear retailer in the country.

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Yesterdays trading: Buzz on Barratt rights hat-trick

April 30th, 2008
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They have collapsed 58% in six months on worries about the deteriorating mortgage and UK housing outlook.

After correctly forecasting that (3p easier at 350p) would hit the market with a mammoth 12bn fundraising and (9p off at 486p) would follow yesterday with a 4bn cash call, dealers are adamant that Barratts will wheel out a rights issue before its interim management statement on May 14.

Broker Kaupthing gives it no more than a 50% chance of trading through without new equity which will surely involve - like HBOS - a sizeable cut to the . Barratt bought Wilson Bowden for 2.2bn in February 2007 and has high debt levels of 1.7bn of which 0.8bn needs refinancing by next April.

The roofs caved in on other housebuilders. , which last week said it had mothballed its planned new developments after a sudden worsening of conditions in the market over the past three weeks or so, dropped 21p more to a year’s low of 581p and stands 60% below its peak. fell 4p to 128p and 8p to 256p.

Selling on further consideration of the deteriorating US housing market and vague rights issue talk left plumbing giant 19p off at 523p.

Spectacular first-quarter profit performances from oil giants (34p better at 613p) and Royal Dutch A (102p higher at 2043p) helped the Footsie climb 43 points at the outset. But with little support forthcoming from elsewhere the index drifted to close one point lower at 6.089.4.

Wall Street fell 45 points ahead of today’s Fed’s decision on US interest rates. Dealers expect a further 25 basis point reduction but reckon Bernanke & Co could say that’s it for the time being.

advanced 14p to 792p on news of a 250m five-year Engineering Modification Services contract for BP in Azerbaijan. AMEC will provide engineering and construction management services to enhance and extend the life of BP’s offshore installations in the Azeri sector of the Caspian Sea which represents around 20pc of BP’s global production.

Mines succumbed to profit-taking and lower metal prices. lost 77p to 1648p, 216p to 6010p and 59p to 1818p.

More than 26m shares changed hands and the close was 11p up at 100p following slightly better-than-expected first-quarter results. steamed 37p ahead to 2171p after reporting a strong start to the year. Trading in the first three months of the year is well ahead of last year.

Mark Tincknell, executive chairman of social housing firm trousered more than 8m after selling 2.25m shares at 375p to apparently satisfy pent-up institutional demand. The shares dipped to 386p before closing 4p to 396p.

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Healthcare firm shed 5p to 66p after rejecting a buy-out proposal from 8% shareholder Aquisitek, a company associated with founder Barry Muncaster. Meldex is still talking to a number of other interested parties.

Bateman Litwin, a mid-sized oil, gas, power and renewable energy company, rose 5p to 133p. But eagle eyed dealers were interested to see that the trustee of the Bateman Litwin Employee Benefit Trust, SGS Trustee Ltd, embarrassingly had to cancel its March 26 sale of 1.4m shares at 217p on behalf of company employees after inconsistencies were found between the dealing instructions and actual execution of the sale. It appears that the stock was sold to an Israeli broker a day before a trading statement. Oops!

Bulls semen company lost 48p to 795p on profit-taking. In a third-quarter trading statement the company said it is on track to meet full-year expectations. The global dairy market has been buoyant due to strong milk prices and this is driving increased investment in dairy herds and greater demand for semen of a specific gender.

Caretech, a provider of learning disability care services, soared 40p to 408p as analysts gave the thumbs up to its 16.6m acquisition of Beacon, a provider of residential and supported living services for adults with learning disabilities in the South East of England.

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Songbird warning as Docklands values fall

April 30th, 2008
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The firm said the value of its property at Docklands fell 4.3% between the end of June and New Year’s Eve, from 7.47bn to 7.27bn. Over 12months, it was up 4.8%.

The 200m writedown since summer was far better than many of its rivals with developments elsewhere in London and the UK, such as , which earlier this year took a 1.4bn hit.

Songbird said high occupancy levels and its control over much of Canary Wharf - it owns about 60% of the 14 million sq ft estate - meant it was less exposed to weakness in the property market. However, it was quick to warn it was not immune to the slowdown.

Reporting a fall in profits from 884.1m to 182m, chairman David Pritchard said: ‘Weakness in global financial markets has forced a slowdown in activity in the UK commercial property market which has been reflected in a softening of real estate values.

‘The group’s property portfolio has not been immune. The challenging market conditions experienced in the second half of 2007 have continued into the first three months of 2008.’

Songbird said it had abandoned all speculative projects - those where it builds before it has found a tenant - meaning its proposals for 25 Churchill Place and Riverside South will be prepared but not developed.

However, it insisted lettings by stricken investment bank Bear Stearns would be honoured by its buyer, JPMorgan Chase.

Pritchard reiterated his commitment to Crossrail, the key east-to-west rail link through London that will take thousands of workers to Canary Wharf every day. Analysts reckon the current Docklands workforce of 93,000 will expand to more than 150,000 in the next 10 years.

‘Crossrail will form an important part of London’s future infrastructure and future prosperity,’ he said.

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